Work package 1: Case studies
The WP will provide the empirical basis for the work of the other WPs. It will collect data for processing by WP2, and provide theories and hypotheses on individual criminal groups, their internal social networks and relationships, their detailed concrete rules of conduct in the management of extortion, and their social environment to WP3 for its simulation modelling. The WP will also cooperate with WP4 for dissemination.
Work package 2: Data coding and analysis
This WP aims to make the empirical datasets developed in WP1 suitable for the calibration of the simulations created in WP3. More specifically, it will develop and apply ICT text mining and summarisation techniques for extracting and summarising rulesets and other information from the data provided by WP1, and then process these to make them suitable for the simulation work of WP3.
Work package 3: Simulation Modelling
This WP aims to model the normative structures associated with criminal organisation and set up agent-based computer simulations of Extortion Racket Systems (ERS) based on the data from WP1 and 2. The agent-based model to be developed will be designed to be appropriate for interaction with users as represented by the Stakeholder Board. The work package will use the model to develop and apply an understanding of distributed multi-level decision processes, and to identify the factors leading to vulnerability and the occurrence of potential regime shifts.
Work package 4: Stakeholder participation
WP4 manages the relationships between the project and stakeholders (that is, potential users of the results of the project, especially members of the judiciary and police forces of the EU member states, organisations representing these bodies, and experts on ERSs from around the world). It will provide feedback to WP1, WP2, and WP3 concerning those work packages’ development of user-centred modelling techniques (WP3), and data collection and user interaction (WP1 and WP2), and will develop and demonstrate methods to use agent-based models in a policy decision context.
More specifically, the work package has five objectives:
- To seek from experts on a range of ERSs, drawn from around the world, information about the structure and growth of ERSs, and to disseminate to them the results of the project.
- To provide for the assessment of the modelling by a Stakeholder Board (SB): in order to obtain the benefits of stakeholder participation, the SB will be presented from early on with scenarios from WP3. Their feedback on these (their assumptions and the nature of the outputs) as well as the features still to be selected will be fed back to WP3. WP4 has therefore a key role in guiding the development of the theory, evidence and modelling in the project.
- To develop an anti-crime strategy process in which the members of the SB develop narrative scenarios informed by the models. The narrative scenario development will further inform model development and the supporting development of evidence and theory.
- To check the progress of the project as to its impact and applicability and to effectuate the transfer of its deliverables, in particular of GLODERS-S. SB members, and/or their colleagues, will be trained to use the simulator and to customise it to new experiments. Two parallel tasks are involved here:
- Monitoring: this will include 2 check-points, where preliminary versions of deliverables will be presented to the SB to obtain feedback;
- Training: this will include a training workshop, during which members of SB will be familiarised with the simulator, and trained to use it independently to run standard experiments or to modify the settings in order to experiment with relatively novel scenarios.
- To contribute to the cluster on “Global Systems Science” and participate in the construction of a roadmap through attending workshops with cluster members to plan activities. Also to link to relevant coordination actions.
Work package 5: Consortium Management
This work package ensures the smooth running of the project according to the project plan.