Taking into account the impact of organised crime on the global financial system, economy and environment, this project aims to provide a theory-driven set of computational tools to study, monitor and possibly predict the dynamics of a specific form of organized crime, Extortion Racket Systems (ERSs), which is widespread over the globe. The development of appropriate policies to limit, or even eradicate, ERSs requires ICT tools for collecting and analysing large quantities of unstructured data, constructing models from narratives and predicting outcomes for use in socio-political decision processes.
The project objectives are:
- To develop and demonstrate ICT tools for the construction of policy-relevant cognitive and normative multi-level agent-based models from large volumes of qualitative, textual data and to use these models to identify system patterns of interest to local, regional and multi-national law enforcement decision-makers;
This objective will be achieved by the development of the simulator GLODERS-S.
- To study and analyse Extortion Racket Systems (ERSs), with a focus on the social, economic, cultural and institutional conditions in which they thrive and the dynamics of their migration from one society to another across the globe;
This objective will be achieved by the construction of a data-informed agent-based model and scenarios generated from this model, reported in a book at the end of the project.